The latest numbers on the microchip shortage: Recession would ease crisis
Automakers expect to cut fewer than 3 million vehicles from their production schedules because of the microchip shortage in 2023, a significant improvement from this year.
in Automotive News, by John Irwin, 18-12-2022
Automakers expect industrywide microchip supply interruptions to force them to cut fewer than 3 million vehicles out of their 2023 production schedules, which would be a significant improvement from this year, according to the latest AutoForecast Solutions estimate.
The buoyed outlook can be chalked up to the slowly improving semiconductor supply as well as the possibility of a recession next year, which would diminish new-vehicle demand and reduce the number of vehicles automakers plan to build in the first place, said Sam Fiorani, AFS vice president of global vehicle forecasting.
AFS estimates that 4.55 million vehicles will have been lost from automaker factory schedules this year, following the 10.5 million units that were axed in 2021.
About 4.41 million vehicles have been lost because of chip shortages, AFS said. That includes automakers cutting about 63,200 vehicles from their schedules this week alone.
More than half of this week’s losses will occur in Europe. AFS reported additional cuts in China (14,700 vehicles), the rest of Asia (8,600), North America (4,700) and South America (300).
The breakdown
| 2022 YEAR TO DATE | 2022 PROJECTED | |
|---|---|---|
| North America | 1 651 300 | 1 681 400 |
| Europe | 1 478 300 | 1 524 800 |
| Rest of Asia | 817 000 | 857 500 |
| South America | 222 000 | 222 000 |
| China | 200 400 | 215 100 |
| Middle East/Africa * | 45 300 | 47 700 |
| Total | 4 414 300 | 4 548 500 |
| *Unchanged from a week earlier | ||
Source: AutoForecast Solutions Inc. autoforecastsolutions.com